A couple of weeks ago, a friend, who is a naturalized citizen, asked me about the significance of Iowa in the electoral process. I replied that it is the first caucus and therefore gets a lot of attention. I added a few points but I really did not get to the heart of the question.
As far as I can discern, an important part of the significance of Iowa is to winnow out some of the candidates (two candidates dropped out last night even before the vote counting ended. Some others may be considering withdrawal. A few candidates (mostly governors) even left the state before the caucuses.
On the Republican side, the last three cycles in Iowa have resulted in the victory of a candidate who is either a known evangelical or acceptable to evangelicals. Huckabee (2008), Santorum (2012), and Cruz (2016). 63% of attendees self-identified as evangelicals according to CNN. From that perspective, victory in Iowa in the prior two cycles did not result in further success.
In Iowa emphasis on the ground game or campaigning at the grassroots is important in both parties, as it is in New Hampshire, the first primary state. Cruz and Sanders had very good ground games. Obama had a very good ground game in 2008.
On the Democratic side, the Iowa caucus form of selecting delegates is complicated. Since Minnesota Democrats copied the format of the Iowa caucus, I experienced the peculiar system. One has to have a viable caucus with a minimum of 15% (I think) of those attending. It is not a clear vote. Delegate apportionment is also strange since 52-48 would wind up as 50-50 in terms of delegates. The actual vote is less significant than the percentages at each caucus or county.
The Republicans have a more straightforward voting system.
Iowa is not a mirror of the nation, but it serves an excellent role in helping to identify the front runners and winnow out the candidates with minimal support.
As one who participated in numerous caucuses in my younger years, I have come to believe in the value of the primary. I would greatly prefer that each state have a primary. Perhaps we would have a series of grouped primary dates in the winter and spring. It would be a much clearer image of popular preference within each party.
