Reflecting on 2017 -- Is America Still a Global Leader?

In 2017, with a new administration, we witnessed an acceleration of a trend that had already begun, namely the retreat of the United States from global leadership.

One can go back in time to trace the origin of the retreat, but arguably it was present during the Obama administration when there was an acknowledgement of the arrogance that had emerged during the years of US "superpowerdom"  (my term). The assumption of global leadership did not start out that way after World War II, but, gradually over time, the arrogance of power seeped in.  The statement that the US was the one indispensable power (late 1990s)  is a manifestation of that arrogance.   That view has tended to underlie US foreign policy up to the present, and it has not publicly been negated.

Ironically, the assertion of the current US administration headed by President Donald Trump that the US has been shortchanged in a variety of negotiations and deals is both a reaffirmation of the "indispensable" argument and a retreat from that policy.   It is a two edged sword.

The current administration does not accept the fact that to be the #1 power means one has to make a lot of concessions and in some cases seemingly lose power  and advantage in the  short term.   The TransPacific Partnership (TPP) is a case in point.  The goal was to limit China's influence in Asia.  The US was willing to make some sacrifices short term to achieve its long term goal of maintaining power in Asia and containing the power of China, the largest, most ambitious power in Asia.   The withdrawal of the US from TPP has created a power vacuum in Asia which China will cheerfully fill to the long term disadvantage of the United States.

For those of us who are students of foreign policy, this is a painful time, regardless how we view the US in the world.    The international order which we have known our whole lives is breaking down.  Whether we see the US as a winner or a loser in this process, we have to recognize that the world order which we studied, lectured on, and accepted as reality is breaking down.  Uncertainty lies ahead.
This is just a preliminary analysis.  I plan to reflect more on this in the future.

Polling in the Current Era: How reliable are polls?

How accurate are polls?    We are finding them less accurate and reliable than ever before.   Our specialists are more sophisticated in profiling voters, for example, or trends, but... and it is a big but, most people either do not have landlines or do not answer the phone unless they recognize the caller's name.

So, polls or any other efforts that rely on the phone will be far less effective.

I take myself as an example.   I no longer answer the phone unless I recognize the number or caller.

When I am at home, the phone may ring about a dozen times a day.   I rarely pick up the phone until I know the caller.

Once in the recent past, when the phone rang, I recognized the number which belonged to the service account on my computer only to discover after some conversation and the caller's access to my computer, that the caller was a spoofer.   My computer was compromised, and I can no longer use that computer.   It was a very costly phone pick up.   I had to reset my passwords, copy out critical files, report the cyber intrusion to the police, my insurance company, etc.    I spent about a week correcting what I could, and I cannot download any of the files and put them on my other computer since they may be contaminated.   I am handicapped on a number of projects.

So, now I am finding it is not even possible to answer the phone when I recognize the number.   I need to hear the voice.

A friend was recently asked to do some calling for a charity.  Three people of 100 whom she called picked up the phone.   She has had the same experience with other volunteer organizations.


The poor response rate makes it unlikely that polling can be reliable.     How can we work out way out of this problem?

Why Leadership Today Is Harder Than It Used To Be

It is hard to be a leader today.   In the era of the internet, social media, and open communication, everything a leaders says or does is videotaped, recorded, repeated, researched, and there.

This is true for all of us, but writ large for people in the public eye like governors, senators, the president, etc.   In the corporate sector, CEOs are extremely well rewarded but still walk a tightrobe.
See Oscar Munoz and United.

Every word of President Trump's firing of James Comey of the FBI was analyzed and parsed.  Had Roosevelt's actions during World War II been thus analyzed, the long term effect would have been far different.

Every comment an official makes is remembered far into the future.   Ten, twenty, or thirty years mean nothing in this age.

Many have reluctance to serve in high profile positions.  And understandably so.  It takes a lot of fortitude  to withstand the publicity.  On the one hand high profile figures have to aware of the world around them, On the other hand, they have to turn off the noise about themselves.

While show business personalities may say,  I don't care what they write about me, so long as they write about me, that may be harder to endure when you are in the public square.

Where to Look for Leadership?

Look inside of yourself, first!!!

Too often we are searching for leadership -- at home, at work, in the community, you name it!  We don't see leadership.   We see colleagues and friends reluctant to step up and assume leadership.    And so we lament. 
There is a dearth of leadership! 

Wait a minute... did we step up? 

Or did we appoint ourselves observers of a leaderless world...

Where were we when an opportunity to step up presented itself?   Did we look down at the table?  Did we avert our eyes?
Did we say... X will do it, I am too busy...

That was probably the reaction of everyone else as well...

When leadership opportunities present themselves, respond!    Opportunities exist all around us.   It is time to step up and take control when the opening occurs....

Then there will not be a leadership vacuum all around us.... Start with ourselves...We can be leaders.  Just do it...

Whatever happened to bipartisanship?

Years ago, we frequently saw examples of bipartisanship in legislation and policy.  Our country had a bipartisan foreign policy that, at its core, continued from administration to administration with small changes and tweaks.
In recent years the opposite is true.   Each administration seems intent on erasing a predecessor administration's record.   Candidates bluster about all the stuff they will do on Day 1.  Especially amusing since Day 1 is Inauguration Day.   They mean Day 2, but Day 1 is more dramatic.

At an administrative level, this means that the US is more unpredictable for foreign policies.   We always had an element of unpredictability but now it may mean reversals as much as continuity.

In domestic policy, we have been seeing various phenomena resulting from the collapse of bipartisanship.   On the one hand, we see gridlock, the most dominant characteristic.   We also discover that our political parties, especially the current Republican Party, have such great differences within them that they have created a new kind of gridlock.    

The opposition party has increasingly become less a partner than an outsider.   The fact that a health bill could be legislated in the House of Representatives without consulting the Democrats is symptomatic.  

Everyone agrees that the Affordable Care Act can be improved, but the language of "repeal and replace' is the language of destroy and replace.    Not fix, but demolish, before rebuilding.   I have not read the bill passed by the House (neither have a lot of House members) but it has a lot of the Affordable Care Act in it despite the rhetoric.

The Senate, with its customary sense of being the "superior" chamber, despite co-equal status, has said it will create its own bill.

The drama will continue.   But it is a good example of the collapse of bipartisanship.

The other pending issue - tax reform - will doubtless demonstrate the same tendencies when its turn comes.

The collapse of bipartisanship affects all of us on a daily basis but what it does internationally to the image and status of the United States has not yet been fully assessed.

Surviving an Injury (or Illness) with Grace and Humor

 Surviving an Injury (or Illness) with Grace and Humor    Norma Noonan

Whether young or old (and especially as we age), we all experience an injury or illness that can disrupt or change our lives.   I suffered a serious injury in the summer of 2016 in an auto accident.   Besides bruises over much of my body and a giant hematoma on my left thigh, my right leg was fractured in two places: the tibial plateau (which required surgery) and the top of the foot which did not require surgery but needed a long time to heal.  

I was in the hospital and rehab for one month and in a wheelchair at home for another month (unable to put weight on my right leg) and then slowly began to walk again with a walker and later a cane.   Now I walk without assistance.

One learns many lessons including patience during the long recovery period.  I had wonderful care in the hospital and rehab and had to exercise even though I could not put weight on the leg.  I learned how to use a walker (I had previous surgery in which I used a walker without learning how to use it). 

I learned a lot about people’s kindness since I had many visitors in the hospital and at home over the months of my recovery.    There was much to learn about gratitude, both that I had survived the accident and that people (family and friends) were so helpful. 

I went from wondering “why me?” to accepting that we all have a cross to bear, and this would be one of mine since I have a permanent reminder in my leg (in the form of a piece of metal shaped like a flagpole with little banners). 

But, I also learned the grace of good humor.   In the early months I had to repeat the story of the accident countless times, while wishing that I did not have to tell the tale again and again.   But, of course, people are curious, and they were hearing it for the first time whereas I was telling the story for perhaps the 100^th time.  

Eventually, however, some humorous incidents struck me.  In November (3 months after the accident) the young PA who saw me in her office announced that I could drive.   At that time, I was walking slowly with a walker, could get into the passenger side of only lower-slung cars (and then only backwards), and had a painful right ankle and foot swollen two-three times its normal size and unable to respond quickly.   How was I to drive with my recovering right leg?      Clearly a 25 year old does not understand fully the healing process.   It was several months more before I felt the leg was strong enough to drive.

Perhaps even funnier are the questions I get about whether the metal implant in my leg will be removed.   I point it that it is holding my tibia in place under the knee and will never come out.    This is perhaps the funniest of all the questions since implants generally are never removed.    Another friend, confusing my situation with knee replacement surgery, commented that my knee should feel better after the surgery.  I keep telling her that there was nothing wrong with my knee before the accident so how can it feel better afterward when it was fine beforehand and now has an implant.

Another statement (or question) is:  it doesn’t hurt anymore, does it?    Well, does a  surgically repaired leg ever feel normal?    If I walk too much or stand too long, it aches at night.  There is almost never a time when it feels normal (that is, as it did before the accident).   It feels strange when I sit, when I stand, and when I move.

I sometimes quip in response to the question:  does it hurt?   Only when I move.

I feel certain that others, who have had major surgery on any part of the body involving permanent implants, get similar questions and have a similar reaction.

For those of us who have endured long illnesses or serious injuries, we have to have the grace to say – well, no, it does hurt a little, but I will live with it.     It takes a little time to see the humor in these well-meaning but peculiar questions, but that is life.