Random thoughts on leadership

This blog is an experiment.. The various successful bloggers have influenced me to try blogging myself.

I will be sharing thoughts, books, book reviews and other content.

It's an open, electronic diary and journal.

Sunday, December 31, 2017

Reflecting on 2017 -- Is America Still a Global Leader?

In 2017, with a new administration, we witnessed an acceleration of a trend that had already begun, namely the retreat of the United States from global leadership.

One can go back in time to trace the origin of the retreat, but arguably it was present during the Obama administration when there was an acknowledgement of the arrogance that had emerged during the years of US "superpowerdom"  (my term). The assumption of global leadership did not start out that way after World War II, but, gradually over time, the arrogance of power seeped in.  The statement that the US was the one indispensable power (late 1990s)  is a manifestation of that arrogance.   That view has tended to underlie US foreign policy up to the present, and it has not publicly been negated.

Ironically, the assertion of the current US administration headed by President Donald Trump that the US has been shortchanged in a variety of negotiations and deals is both a reaffirmation of the "indispensable" argument and a retreat from that policy.   It is a two edged sword.

The current administration does not accept the fact that to be the #1 power means one has to make a lot of concessions and in some cases seemingly lose power  and advantage in the  short term.   The TransPacific Partnership (TPP) is a case in point.  The goal was to limit China's influence in Asia.  The US was willing to make some sacrifices short term to achieve its long term goal of maintaining power in Asia and containing the power of China, the largest, most ambitious power in Asia.   The withdrawal of the US from TPP has created a power vacuum in Asia which China will cheerfully fill to the long term disadvantage of the United States.

For those of us who are students of foreign policy, this is a painful time, regardless how we view the US in the world.    The international order which we have known our whole lives is breaking down.  Whether we see the US as a winner or a loser in this process, we have to recognize that the world order which we studied, lectured on, and accepted as reality is breaking down.  Uncertainty lies ahead.
This is just a preliminary analysis.  I plan to reflect more on this in the future.


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